Defiance against a stagnating political climate. Reform UK is not a moment, it is a movement. And it is here to stay.
In recent weeks, speculation has intensified over a potential return of Boris Johnson to frontline politics. Some within the Conservative Party believe his leadership could reinvigorate the party, halt the rise of Reform UK, and win back disillusioned Tory voters. This narrative presumes that Reform UK’s growing support is merely a response to recent Conservative failures, and that a change in leadership could reverse its momentum.
However, this analysis oversimplifies the complex political realignment underway in Britain today. Reform UK’s rise is not just about dissatisfaction with the Conservative Party—it reflects a broader disillusionment with the traditional two-party system. Voters moving towards Reform are rejecting not only the failures of the Conservatives but also the Labour Party’s inability to address the issues that matter most to ordinary people. The political shift is far more profound, and Reform UK is positioned to represent the growing desire for real change.
The Broad Appeal of Reform UK
The July 2024 general election was a watershed moment for Reform UK. The party secured 14.3% of the national vote and won five parliamentary seats, marking its strongest electoral performance to date. While the first-past-the-post system limited its parliamentary representation, the scale of support behind Reform UK demonstrated that it is more than just a protest movement. Its rise signals a growing recognition that the UK needs a genuine political alternative—one that represents a break from the broken promises, high taxation, weak governance, and unchecked immigration policies championed by both the Conservatives and Labour.
Far from being a temporary reaction to the Conservative government’s mismanagement, Reform UK has built a committed and expanding support base. With an estimated 1.7 million people strongly identifying with the party, and over 213,000 members as of 22nd February 2024, the party has established itself as a serious political force with long-term potential. This growth reflects a more permanent shift in public sentiment, driven by a dissatisfaction that cuts across traditional party lines.
What sets Reform UK apart from other movements is its ability to attract not just disillusioned Conservative voters but also non-voters and individuals who previously felt politically homeless. The party’s appeal is growing beyond just right-wing voters to encompass a broader electorate dissatisfied with the establishment, presenting a compelling alternative to both the Conservatives and Labour.
The Conservative Decline and the Failure of Leadership
Despite the mounting pressure on the Conservative Party, some still believe that a change in leadership—perhaps even the return of Boris Johnson—could reverse the party’s decline and reclaim voters for the Tories. However, this assumption fails to grasp the full scale of the crisis within the Conservative Party.
The root of the Conservative Party’s downfall is not simply a matter of leadership failure—it lies in a broader failure to govern according to the wishes of their electorate. For years, the Tories have promised lower immigration and more secure borders, yet under both Johnson and his successors, immigration numbers have soared. For example, net migration reached an estimated 2.1 million in the year ending June 2024—far higher than previous years, despite repeated promises to reduce the numbers. This broken promise on immigration is one factor behind the rise of Reform UK, as voters have grown frustrated with the government’s inability to control immigration and uphold its pledges.
Additionally, the Conservatives presided over the highest tax burden in 70 years, pushing taxes higher while public services continue to decline. Voters watched as crime rates have increased, the economy stagnated, and essential public services worsened, all while being told that tax hikes were necessary to sustain these failing systems. The growing perception of the Conservative Party as out of touch with the needs of ordinary people has led many voters to turn to Reform UK as a voice of change.
The notion that a new leader could “save” the Conservative Party ignores the reality of the deep dissatisfaction felt by millions of voters who feel betrayed by both major parties. Boris Johnson’s return would not erase the damage caused by years of broken promises and ineffective governance—issues that continue to drive voters toward Reform UK.
Labour's Role in Reinforcing Reform UK's Appeal
While much of the focus has been on the Conservative collapse, it is also important to note how Keir Starmer’s Labour government has inadvertently fuelled Reform UK’s growth. Since Labour came to power in 2024, the government has pursued policies that have alienated key voter groups, including those who initially supported Starmer in the hope of moderate governance. However, Labour’s early months in office have been marked by controversial economic decisions, tax hikes, and a failure to address concerns over immigration and public services.
Winter Fuel Payment Cuts: In September 2024, Labour’s decision to abolish winter fuel payments for all but the poorest pensioners sparked outrage, particularly among older voters, who already felt financially squeezed. This decision undermined Labour’s image as the party of working-class and pensioner protection, pushing many voters toward Reform UK.
Inheritance Tax on Farmland: The announcement that Labour would end inheritance tax exemptions on farms worth over £1 million—dubbed the “tractor tax”—was met with fierce resistance from rural communities. Farmers warned that this measure could force the sale of family-owned farms, damaging the agricultural sector and food security. This policy was seen as another example of Labour’s lack of understanding of the challenges faced by rural communities.
EU Migration Plans: Reports have suggested that Labour is negotiating a youth mobility scheme with the European Union, which could increase migration numbers. For many Brexit voters, this plan is seen as undermining the very principles of self-governance that drove their support for leaving the EU in the first place. As a result, Labour risks alienating the very voters it hoped to win over.
Taxation and Public Services: Despite Labour’s promises of “responsible economics,” the party has overseen tax increases and a continued failure to significantly improve public services. High tax rates, combined with inefficient public spending, have undermined Labour’s credibility and worsened public sentiment towards the government.
As a result, Reform UK has emerged as the primary beneficiary of Labour’s decline in popularity. The party is attracting not just disillusioned Conservative voters but also Labour supporters who are frustrated with Starmer’s unfulfilled promises and lack of action on key issues like immigration and economic reform.
What Would a General Election Look Like Today?
Recent polling data suggests that Reform UK is not only holding its support but expanding it. Reform UK is now polling at 27%, ahead of both Labour (25%) and the Conservatives (21%), reflecting a dramatic shift in public sentiment. If this polling trend continues, Reform UK’s influence in a general election could be seismic.
Although the first-past-the-post system remains a challenge, Reform UK’s increasing appeal in previously safe Conservative and Labour constituencies means that the party could win seats in key battleground areas. The party’s ability to capitalise on public discontent and its growing political infrastructure suggest that its performance in future elections could be far stronger than in the 2024 general election.
Reform UK: A Permanent Force in British Politics
Reform UK’s rise is not just a reaction to the failure of the Conservative Party but part of a broader shift in British politics. The party has built a solid, committed voter base, expanded its membership to historic levels, and consistently outpolls the traditional parties. While the Conservative collapse created an opening for Reform UK, it is Labour’s policies that are accelerating its growth.
The next general election will likely confirm what the July 2024 vote already suggested: Reform UK is a permanent force in British politics. Its rise is a direct challenge to the two-party system, which no longer seems fit for purpose in an era of profound political change.
The establishment’s inability to address key issues—immigration, taxation, public services—has left voters seeking a genuine alternative. Reform UK has positioned itself to be that alternative, offering a vision for a future free from the broken promises of both the Conservatives and Labour.
Those who dismiss Reform UK’s rise as a temporary protest are failing to recognise the scale of this political transformation. The next few years will determine whether Reform UK can build on its momentum and create a truly sustainable force for change in the UK.